June Report (Based on May Data)
Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN)
Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)
Submission deadline: Tuesday, 10 June 2014
Guidelines for contributors can be found below and at:
http://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook
Past SIO reports can be found at:
http://www.arcus.org/search-program/seaiceoutlook
Contact: Helen Wiggins, ARCUS
Email: helen [at] arcus.org
Since 2008, the annual Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) Sea
Ice Outlook (SIO) has obtained over 300 community predictions of the
September sea ice extent.
This year represents a transition for the SIO, as it is now managed as
part of the Sea Ice Prediction Network project (SIPN;
http://www.arcus.org/sipn) as a contribution to SEARCH. The goal of the
SIO is to improve sea ice prediction on seasonal time-scales by
developing a network of scientists and stakeholders to advance research
on sea ice prediction. At a recent workshop
(http://www.arcus.org/sipn/meetings/workshops/apr...) and over the
past few years, SIO contributors and users have offered many
recommendations for expanding the SIO. Starting this year, the SIO
reports will be responsive to these recommendations and will evolve to a
more robust scientific tool. While keeping the same general structure
for the SIO as before, it is time to encourage more model participation
and expand the information provided from model activities.
For the June and July reports (using May and June data, respectively),
we request pan-Arctic Outlooks. Later in the season (early August),
while updates to pan-Arctic Outlooks will be welcome, we will primarily
solicit regional forecasts. However, contributions for pan-Arctic and
regional will be accepted during all periods.
We will also post a separate announcement calling for participants in a
SIPN Action Team to work with us to further develop and steer the
details of SIO reports as the season develops.
We encourage all past contributors to submit Outlooks this year and we
also hope to see new participants.
ALL Outlook submissions should be sent directly to Helen Wiggins at
ARCUS (helen [at] arcus.org) with the following subject lines, as relevant:
PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK - [YOUR LAST NAME/GROUP NAME]
REGIONAL OUTLOOK - [YOUR LAST NAME/GROUP NAME]
OUTLOOK FOR BOTH REGIONAL AND PAN-ARCTIC - [YOUR LAST NAME/GROUP NAME]
An MS Word document is preferred for ease of formatting to PDF files and
extracting images for the website--we will not edit your individual
submission and will not post your Word documents.
SUBMISSION GUIDELINES
The submission deadline is Tuesday, 10 June 2014 and all submissions
should be sent to Helen Wiggins, ARCUS, at helen [at] arcus.org. Please feel
free to contact Helen with any questions or clarifications.
CORE RQUIREMENTS FOR PAN-ARCTIC CONTRIBUTIONS
The following items are required. There is also a template in MS Word
at: http://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook
Contributor Name(s)/Group
Type of Outlook projection
Model___ Statistical___ Heuristic___
If you use a model, please specify:
Model Name ___________
Components of the model: Atmosphere___ Ocean___ Ice___ Land___ Coupler___
For non-coupled model: Ice___ Ocean___ Forcing___
September monthly average projection (in million square kilometers)
Short explanation of Outlook method (1-3 sentences)
If this is a model contribution, please include method of initialization
and variable used. In addition, we encourage you to submit a more
detailed Outlook, including discussions of uncertainties/probabilities
and any relevant figures, imagery, and references.Projection uncertainty/probability estimate (only required if
available with the method you are using)Short explanation/assessment of basis for the uncertainty estimate in
using)
- "Executive summary" about your Outlook contribution
1-3 sentences, to be used in Outlook summary: say in a few sentences
what your Outlook contribution is and why. To the extent possible, use
non-technical language.
ADDITIONAL (OPTIONAL) ITEMS FOR PAN-ARCTIC CONTRIBUTIONS
Spatial forecast/map for September mean ice extent. Either images
(e.g., jpg, tiff, pdf) and/or data may be provided. If data is provided,
formats with geographic information included (e.g., geoTIFF) or in
NetCDF are preferred, but we will work with the format provided as long
as all relevant grid/projection/data format information is provided.Hindcast validation statistics for a set period. If your method has
been tested in a hindcast mode, please provide summary statistics for
whatever period used.Estimate for the week that the minimum daily extent will occur
(expressed in date format using Sunday to denote the week: e.g., week of
14 September).
SUBMITTING A REGIONAL OUTLOOK
We will focus on the regional reports later in the season (e.g., early
August). However, Regional Outlooks are welcome at any time. Regional
Outlook contributions should include:
Region of Interest
Please describe the region your Outlook covers; a location map showing
your Outlook region is preferred.Sea Ice Parameter
Provide a regional pattern or a single value estimate of phenological
stages (i.e., melt onset, freeze onset, break-up and freeze-up dates,
length of open water season) or monthly ice concentration, ice area, and
ice extent. Please indicate whether you expect ice conditions to be
similar, lighter (i.e., lower ice concentrations, earlier melt onset,
earlier break-up, later freeze-up), or heavier (i.e., greater ice
concentrations, later melt onset, later break-up, earlier freeze-up)
than those of summer 2013.Outline of Methods/Techniques
Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model,
traditional knowledge, etc.) with a brief description of the methodology
and a short paragraph describing the physical rationale for the estimate.Estimate of Forecast Skill
If possible, please include any estimates of past forecast skill and
probability/uncertainty associated with your prediction.
Past SIO reports can be found at:
http://www.arcus.org/search-program/seaiceoutlook.
Submission deadline: Tuesday, 10 June 2014.
ALL Outlook submissions should be sent directly to Helen Wiggins at
ARCUS (helen [at] arcus.org) with the following subject lines, as relevant:
PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK - [YOUR LAST NAME/GROUP NAME]
REGIONAL OUTLOOK - [YOUR LAST NAME/GROUP NAME]
OUTLOOK FOR BOTH REGIONAL AND PAN-ARCTIC - [YOUR LAST NAME/GROUP NAME]
An MS Word document is preferred for ease of formatting to PDF files and
extracting images for the website--we will not edit your individual
submission and will not post your Word documents.
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