2016 Sea Ice Outlook
July Report Available
Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN)
Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)
The report is available at:
http://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2016/july
For more information, please contact:
Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS
Email: betsy [at] arcus.org
The July report for the 2016 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) is now available. The
SIO is an activity of the Sea Ice Prediction Network project (SIPN,
http://www.arcus.org/sipn) as a contribution to the Study of
Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH,http://www.arcus.org/search-program).
The goal of the SIO is to improve Arctic sea ice prediction on seasonal
time-scales. This month's report was developed by lead authors Cecilia
Bitz and Ed Blanchard-Wrigglesworth (U. of Washington) with
contributions from the rest of the SIPN Leadership Team
(https://www.arcus.org/sipn/leadership).
Organizers thank all who contributed to the 37 Outlooks received for
this report, which includes 36 pan-Arctic outlooks (3 of which also
provided Alaska-regional outlooks), and one additional regional-only
outlook. Five contributions included gridded fields. The median
pan-Arctic Outlook value for September 2016 sea ice extent is 4.3
million square kilometers with quartiles of 4.1 and 4.6 million square
kilometers. Contributions are based on a range of methods: statistical,
dynamical models, mixed methods, estimates based on trends, and two
informal polls.
This month's report also includes:
- Discussion about dynamical model contributions and their variance,
which has narrowed since the June report; - Discussion on predicted spatial fields, sea ice probability (SIP), and
the first ice-free day (IFD) from a number of dynamical models; - Discussion on current conditions, recent atmospheric conditions, and
probability forecasts for late summer meteorological conditions; - Key statements from each individual Outlook; and
- Links to view or download individual contributions.
The complete report is available at:
http://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2016/july.
This is the second monthly SIO for the 2016 season. A call for
contributions to the August report will be announced via ArcticInfo and
the SIPN mailing list (http://www.arcus.org/sipn/mailing-list).
For more information, please contact:
Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS
Email: betsy [at] arcus.org
ArcticInfo is administered by the Arctic Research Consortium of the
United States (ARCUS). Please visit us on the World Wide Web at:
http://www.arcus.org/
Follow ARCUS on twitter: @ArcticResearch
At any time you may:
Subscribe or unsubscribe by using the web form located at:
http://www.arcus.org/arcticinfo/subscription.html
To be removed from the list at any time send an email to:
arcticinfo-unsub [at] arcus.org
To resubscribe send an email to:
arcticinfo-sub [at] arcus.org
Subscribers to ArcticInfo will automatically receive the newsletter,
Witness the Arctic.If you would prefer not to receive Witness the Arctic,
specify on the web form.
Subscribe and unsubscribe actions are automatic. Barring mail system
failure you should receive responses from our system as confirmation to
your requests.
If you have information you would like to post to the mailing list visit :
http://www.arcus.org/arctic-info/submission
You can search back issues of ArcticInfo by content or date at:
http://www.arcus.org/arctic-info/search
If you have any questions please contact the list administrator at:
list [at] arcus.org
ARCUS
3535 College Road, Suite 101
Fairbanks, AK 99709-3710
907-474-1600
907-474-1604 (fax)
ArcticInfo is funded by the National Science Foundation as a service to
the research community through Cooperative Agreement PLR-1304316 with
ARCUS. Any information, opinions, findings, and conclusions or
recommendations expressed in this material are those of the information
sources and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science
Foundation or ARCUS.