The objective of the project is to identify robust seasonal changes in the Arctic climate system to projected Arctic sea ice loss, and to place these into the context of global-scale changes due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations (GHGs). We examine physical and biological changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and land using the newest versions of the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and Community Earth System Model (CESM) as our primary tool.
To date, our project has investigated the following issues:
Climatological characteristics of the planetary boundary layer over the Arctic Ocean and adjacent continents in models and various observational products including radiosondes, reanalyses, and satellite data.
Uncertainty in future trajectories of Arctic sea ice loss due to internal variability of the climate system based on a new 40-member ensemble of forced 21st century integrations with CCSM version 3.
Impact of shifting seasonality on carbon and nutrient cycling in the Arctic Ocean based on forced 21st century integrations with CCSM.
Evaluation of seasonal changes in 21st century Arctic sea ice as simulated by the new CCSM version 4.
Soil data assemblage for use in assessing the state of ground and comparison to CESM.
Recent changes in Arctic seasonality as determined from Reanalysis products.
Project Location
Papers submitted or in press
Medeiros, B., C. Deser, R.A. Tomas, and J.E. Kay, "Arctic inversion strength in climate models", J. Climate, e-View, doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI3968.1 (2011).
Vavrus, S.J., M.M. Holland, A. Jahn, D.A. Bailey, and B.A. Blazey, "21st-Century Arctic climate change in CCSM4", J. Climate (2011).
Dates
-Members
Principal Investigator
Co-Principal Investigator
Co-Principal Investigator
